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s <br /> SANDWICH SCHOOL FINANCE <br /> A.Report for the Sandwich Public Schools <br /> s element students "appear" each year. On average, the "uneN,pected" enrollment in- <br /> crease <br /> pp Y � <br /> crease has been 67 students; in October, 1994 it was 35 students. <br /> Finally,with overall town population projected to a ow at?.7% a year over the next dec- <br /> ade, <br /> it is reasonable to expect that the number of Idnd.ergarten students entering the sys- <br /> tem each year will also grow by 2.7%. <br /> rh <br /> Long-run enrollment projections were made based on these three elements. The resulting enrollment gains, illustrated in the chart below, closely parallel the school system's oivn <br /> enrollment predictions. <br /> �f. <br /> �f <br /> I� <br /> Actual and Projected Enrolment Growth <br /> Punt Increases in Sandwich Enmilmeat,as Calculated by Cape Ann Econorrucs <br /> E ti <br /> ■% <br /> `i a P rojected <br /> 6% Actual l II <br /> r .�•.� <br /> ....... <br /> r <br /> l0 Y :yyy •x::titi: <br /> J K�}•:• •fes• <br /> j O Y`j � ft.�'J� r•� <br /> .:y .r{ 'off:• <br /> 0% ti :•::r .tit: <br /> 92 93 94 95 98 97 98 99 <br /> I,•r <br /> The forecast of enrollment is for increases of 4%v or more in future years. The increase <br /> 4' nexty ear is somewhat smaller than usual, since the senior graduating class in the current <br /> Ei <br /> year is somewhat larger than usual. The increases *in future years are somewhat less than <br /> the past two years, since the very smallest high school classes will have already left the sys- <br /> tem. <br /> r- <br /> Y <br /> •t <br /> =Y <br /> Long-Term Spending Outlook <br /> Projections for foundation budgets and net schools spending have been prepared based on <br /> � g P g P P <br /> the enrollmentP �ro'ections above and on assumed continuation of the current 2.o% infla- <br /> tion rate. Fiscal 96 looks quite similar to FY 95. Barring a change in estimating practice's, <br /> y I've assumed the local revenue gro%vth factor would still be only 3.3%; state aid is up by <br /> I F} <br /> { only$80,040, so total school spending rises by only 3.4%. 1I eanwh ile, enrollment is up <br /> 5.4%, the foundation budget has risen by 9.110, and spending has fallen to only 102.6% of <br /> g P g <br /> the foundation budget. Innation-adjusted spending per p��pil falls by over s%a. <br /> i An even better projection could be made by also using town birth rigu res for recent years. <br /> Page 12 <br /> i <br />