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Massachusetts Estuary Project(MEP) <br /> _. -- - - --Linked Watershed Embayment Model Peer Review -------------------- ---- ---- ----------------- ---._..._._ <br /> linkages between threshold nitrogen concentrations and water quality/ecological responses can only be <br /> based on data analysis and best professional judgment. However, the Panel believes the uncertainties in <br /> these data-based linkages are conservative in the sense that the actual nitrogen concentrations required to <br /> achieve the eelgrass endpoints are probably lower than the threshold nitrogen concentrations in the <br /> TMDLs. The recommended adaptive management approach will result in clarification and appropriate <br /> adjustment of these threshold values as the process moves forward. <br /> Overall,results from sensitivity analyses will inform judgments about prediction uncertainties as <br /> implementation of nitrogen control measures proceeds. To this end,results from model sensitivity <br /> analyses, in combination with knowledge of each of the systems,can be used to identify pilot sites at <br /> which temporal changes are expected in key model inputs,linkages, or water quality/ecological response <br /> parameters. Focused monitoring at these pilot sites can then provide data for testing predictions, <br /> quantifying uncertainties, and improving the components and linkages in the decision support system. <br /> December 30,2011 <br />