Laserfiche WebLink
Nantucket Sound(Figure 16, outer station) for almost the entire flooding tide. For this reason, <br /> the final areas of eelgrass habitat or high quality benthic animal habitat in a eutrophying estuary <br /> are typically found within the region of the tidal inlet. <br /> The Health Index, as a composite of all major nutrient related water quality parameters, also <br /> allows for a tracking of temporal trends in water quality. Given the natural variation in water <br /> quality associated metrics, it is difficult to determine small short term changes. This is <br /> particularly true if changes result fiom a number of small and/or dispersed improvements in <br /> tidal flushing, nitrogen source reductions, etc. However, with the growing dataset it is now <br /> possible to examine if change is occurring within these estuaries (improving/declining). To this <br /> end,the Index data from Waquoit Bay from 2010-12;2013-14 and 2015-16 were compared to <br /> the historical baseline (Figure 15)with a similar analysis for Popponesset Bay(Figure 17). <br /> These comparisons are now sufficiently robust to show trends in estuarine health based on the <br /> integrated Index at the different sites between years. Values falling above the 1:1 line show an <br /> improvement, values below the line indicate a decline and values near or on the line suggests, no <br /> change at that site in that year from historical conditions. In Waquoit Bay it now appears that <br /> there has been a general improvement in regions of significant impairment(Index<30), small <br /> recent improvements in the moderately impaired areas fiom 2013-2016 and no change (I site)to <br /> a worsening of water quality(1 site) in the highest quality sites (>60). It should be noted that the <br /> declines seen in the 2015-2016 data are driven significantly by the large phytoplankton bloom in <br /> 2016. The importance of this event will depend on if it was a rare event spawned by low flows <br /> due to the 2016 drought or if it is part of a trend toward increasing bloom frequency and duration <br /> due to continued nitrogen enrichment. At this time there does not appear to be any major decline <br /> in water quality throughout the Waquoit.-Bay System. In comparison,water quality in the <br /> Popponesset Bay System showed more stability between years than Waquoit Bay,with the only <br /> clear result being the small improvement in the poorest quality areas (long term index<30). <br /> However, Popponesset Bay also had a moderately large phytoplankton bloom in 2016,which <br /> impacted water quality. Overall,the trend of improving water quality in the poorest quality areas <br /> is a positive sign for both estuaries,as these areas are most nitrogen enriched. Analysis of <br /> macroalgal accumulations in these areas may give insight into if the improvement is related to <br /> loading or a diversion to different primary producer(macroalgae versus phytoplankton. <br /> The above approach yields more information on change than the color coded mapping of results <br /> (Figures 14 and 16) which are based on single years and Index ranges. The direct comparisons <br /> are based on individual sites for individual years compared to the baseline conditions. This <br /> comparison indicates that for Waquoit Bay(Figure 15), the intermediate areas of impairment in <br /> the lower main basins tended to show poorer water quality in 2016, consistent with the observed <br /> higher chlorophyll-a (bloom) and oxygen depletions. Popponesset Bay showed a similar pattern <br /> (Figure 17) of slightly lower water quality in the main basin in 2016 compared to historical <br /> levels and experienced a moderately large phytoplankton bloom (which also occurred in Three <br /> Bays)with associated bottom water oxygen depletions. A single year is not a trend and more <br /> analysis is needed to determine the importance of the 2016 regional phytoplankton bloom to the <br /> restoration plan for these estuaries and if it is the result of a"rare" set of weather conditions or if <br /> it will become the new normal in response to continuing high levels of nitrogen enrichment. <br /> 20 <br />