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Massachusetts Estuary Project(MEP) <br /> Linked Watershed Embayment Model Peer Review <br /> E Of ib&p',-h i � t o 6-h major 'e, of) <br /> --.--s-eagrass declines <br /> No Nutrient limited Optimal seagrass. Light limited No <br /> seagrass seagrass habitat seagrass seagrass <br /> y 1- <br /> i <br /> Seagrass Extensive Dense ,Reduced, Sparse <br /> textures roots. canopy <br /> roots caropY <br /> 5. <br /> s , • o <br /> Figure 3.Conceptual Diagram,Illustrating How Nutrient Loading and,Futrophication Leads to <br /> Bio-physical Changes in the State of an.Felgrass System. <br /> (Courtesy of the Integration and Application Network Center for Environmental Science, University of Maryland) <br /> Further uncertainty is introduced by the assumption that the sentinel station is in a stable equilibrium <br /> condition. Recently published studies suggest that many embayments.inIMassachusetts are in transition <br /> with respect to their eelgrass distribution and abundance(Costello and Kenworthy,2011,Neckles ei al. <br /> 2011). The majority of Massachusetts embayments are recently displaying declines(Costello and <br /> Kenworthy,201.1),and.most of the MEP reports state that longer term declines have been occurring in the <br /> impaired systems. In the most intensively studied portions of Pleasant Bay there is both evidence for <br /> eelgrass increases(Heckles et al,2011)and decreases (Costello and Kenworthy,2011),including a recent <br /> assessment of Ryders Cove,a sub-embaymentof Pleasant Bay:and the location of one of the sentinel <br /> stations(personal communication,Charles Costello,MDEP): Ryders Cove is now nearly devoid of <br /> seagrass. The degree of uncertainty associated with potential transitions to unstable conditions cannot be <br /> resolved by inspection of the MEP reports because the description of their field sampling methodologies <br /> for assessing eelgrass health and condition is inadequate. There are no detailed descriptions of the survey <br /> methods used,the location and number of stations sampled,specific results or methods of data analysis. <br /> Results are presented in narrative form and summarized with categorical variables. Furthermore,the <br /> MEP program attempts to corroborate their assessment of the sentinel station conditions using the MDEP <br /> mapping data, but the mapping data are generalized across the embayments and provide information <br /> December 30,2011 <br />